India-US Farm Trade Is Booming — Even as It Stalls at the Negotiating Table
Despite growing tensions in the broader trade relationship between India and the United States — especially around agriculture and Russian oil imports — something unexpected is happening beneath the surface: agricultural trade between the two countries is not just stable, it’s thriving.
In the first half of 2025 alone (January to June), India imported agricultural goods worth $1.69 billion from the U.S., a staggering 49.1% jump compared to the same period in 2024. On the other hand, India’s own exports of farm products to the U.S. grew by 24.1%, reaching $3.47 billion. At this pace, the two-way agri trade between the countries is on track to break previous records.
And yet, agriculture remains one of the biggest sticking points in ongoing trade negotiations.
What’s driving this surge, then?
On the import side, India continues to rely heavily on the U.S. for a few key commodities — most notably almonds and pistachios, which alone made up over $1.1 billion in imports last year. This year, that figure has grown by another 42.8%, making tree nuts the single largest agricultural import from the U.S.
But it doesn’t stop there. Ethanol, soyabean oil, and cotton have also seen strong growth. The ethanol imported from the U.S. — worth more than $420 million in 2024 — isn’t used for blending with fuel (yet), but rather for industrial uses, including chemicals and pharmaceuticals. However, the U.S. has been pressuring India to open the door for ethanol fuel blending as well — something India has resisted, just as it has with genetically modified (GM) maize and soyabean.
That’s where the trade talks have hit a wall. Most of the corn and soyabean grown by American farmers is genetically modified, and India has strict restrictions on importing GM food grains. It currently allows certain processed products — like soyabean oil and industrial ethanol made from GM corn — but not the raw crops themselves.
Even with this restriction, soyabean oil exports from the U.S. have surged, especially after India reduced import duties from 27.5% to 16.5% in May. Cotton, too, has become a bigger import item now that India, traditionally an exporter, has turned into a net importer due to domestic shortages.
Meanwhile, India’s agricultural exports to the U.S. are more diverse. Seafood — especially frozen shrimp — is the largest chunk, but spices, essential oils, basmati rice, processed fruits and vegetables, and baked goods are all doing well. Each of these categories now generates over $200 million annually in exports.
However, this success story could be disrupted by the new tariffs imposed by President Trump. With import duties on Indian goods into the U.S. now doubled to 50%, Indian exporters suddenly find themselves at a steep disadvantage compared to other countries. For example, shrimp exports from India are now subject to much higher tariffs than competing nations like Chile (10%), Ecuador (15%), Indonesia (19%), and Vietnam (20%). Only Canada faces a higher rate at 35%.
India's seafood exports had been doing exceptionally well — clocking a 32.5% increase in the first half of 2025. But with such steep tariffs, staying competitive in the U.S. market will be much harder going forward.
Still, the sheer momentum of agricultural trade between the two countries is striking, especially in a year when so much else seems to be going wrong on the diplomatic front. While politicians argue over GM crops and ethanol fuel policy, farmers, exporters, and consumers in both nations are continuing to do business at unprecedented levels.
This unexpected surge could serve as a reminder that beneath all the rhetoric and roadblocks, there’s still real demand and cooperation happening — and perhaps even a reason to hope that trade talks might eventually find common ground.
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