After Striking Yemen, Israel Faces a Bigger Question: Rethinking Its Security in a Changed Middle East

 

After Striking Yemen, Israel Faces a Bigger Question: Rethinking Its Security in a Changed Middle East

As Israel carries out strikes on Houthi targets in Yemen — including key locations like the ports of Hodeidah, Ras Isa, Salif, and a major power station at Ras Khatib — it sends a strong message: it won't tolerate threats from any front. The Houthis, backed by Iran, seem determined to present themselves as a persistent and growing concern, especially at a time when most other Iranian proxies are maintaining a low profile.

For years, the Israel-Iran rivalry has been waged through indirect means — mostly rhetoric, covert actions, and support for proxy forces. That fragile balance changed dramatically when both countries directly exchanged military blows in 2024 and again more recently in June 2025. These clashes have significantly raised the stakes in the region and forced both countries to reassess their strategies.

At the heart of the long-standing hostility lies Iran’s nuclear program. Ever since Iran’s secret uranium enrichment facility in Natanz was revealed in 2002, Israel and the U.S. have kept a watchful eye on Tehran’s ambitions. Over the years, the tension simmered. But this past June, it boiled over when Israel launched preemptive strikes on Iranian targets, prompting retaliation and culminating in U.S. airstrikes on three key Iranian nuclear facilities.

Although the exchanges caused limited material damage at first, Israeli leaders may have underestimated Iran’s resolve. The assumption that Iran would continue with restrained responses proved costly. When the conflict escalated, Iran hit critical infrastructure within Israel — including an oil refinery in Haifa, a hospital in Beersheba, and residential buildings — despite Israel’s sophisticated missile defense systems like Iron Dome, David’s Sling, Arrow, and the U.S.-supplied Patriots.

These attacks laid bare the vulnerabilities of Israel’s defense setup. For a small country, prolonged missile barrages are not just dangerous — they’re strategically unsustainable. The cost of defending against such attacks, both financially and politically, is enormous.

Meanwhile, Iran has its own post-conflict headaches. While it managed to strike back, the price has been steep. Key figures in the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) were killed, and public dissatisfaction is growing. The regime is now walking a tightrope: it needs to assert control and suppress dissent, but doing so could provoke further unrest — especially given the history of protests like those following the death of Mahsa Amini and ongoing dissatisfaction with the regime's stance on women’s rights, the economy, and civil liberties.

Iran’s wider regional ambitions have also taken a hit. The death of Hezbollah’s Hassan Nasrallah in an Israeli airstrike last year was a major blow to Iran’s regional proxy strategy, often referred to as the “Axis of Resistance.” The fall of Bashar al-Assad in Syria, a close Iranian ally, to rebel forces in December 2024 added to Tehran’s setbacks. And while the Houthis did launch missiles toward Israel, other Iranian-backed militias in Lebanon and Iraq were noticeably restrained — a sign that Iran's coordination with its proxies may not be as strong as once believed.

But it's far too early to assume Iran will give up on its proxy strategy entirely. These groups are more likely biding their time, adopting a lower profile to avoid further Israeli retaliation, at least for now.

On the Israeli side, another key issue looms: dependence on the U.S. For decades, Israel has relied on American security backing. But with the Trump administration showing little appetite for prolonged military involvement in the Middle East, questions are being asked in Tel Aviv. Can Israel afford to count on the U.S. indefinitely? Or does it need to rethink its approach and prepare for greater self-reliance?

Iran’s nuclear capabilities may have been set back, possibly by years. But the bigger fear is that the regime will now double down on secrecy, making it even harder for international watchdogs to keep tabs on its activities. This lack of transparency could usher in a new, more dangerous phase of the conflict — one where intentions are hidden, red lines are unclear, and miscalculations are more likely.

As it has done after previous wars, Israel will likely take a hard look at what went wrong and what needs to be improved. This 12-day conflict has tested the limits of both Israel’s and Iran’s deterrence capabilities. It has shifted the regional balance in ways that may take months — or years — to fully understand. But one thing is clear: the old playbook is no longer enough. Israel must now reassess not just how it fights, but how it plans for a far more unpredictable regional future.