Thursday, July 3, 2025

India Draws the Line on Corn, Ethanol, Soybean & Dairy in Trade Talks with US

 India Draws the Line on Corn, Ethanol, Soybean & Dairy in Trade Talks with US



As India and the United States continue negotiations on a long-pending trade deal, four key agricultural sectors have emerged as major sticking points: corn, ethanol, soybeans, and dairy. New Delhi has made it clear these are non-negotiable areas — or “red lines” — especially as pressure mounts from Washington to open up Indian markets further.

US President Donald Trump has called for a “very big” trade agreement with India that would reduce tariffs and create fairer competition for American products. But Indian officials, including Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman, have strongly emphasized that the livelihoods of Indian farmers will not be compromised.

“There’s no way we could do anything that would weaken our agriculture or our farmers’ positions,” she said in a recent interview.

Here’s a closer look at the four contentious commodities that lie at the heart of the trade talks:


1. Corn (Maize): A GM Debate

The United States is the world’s top corn producer and exporter, much of which is genetically modified (GM). Over 94% of US corn is grown using GM varieties designed to withstand herbicides and resist pests.

In contrast, India neither grows nor allows the import of GM corn. Current Indian import duties stand at 15% for up to 0.5 million tonnes annually, jumping to 50% beyond that limit.

A proposal under discussion involves allowing GM corn imports solely for producing ethanol — not for direct consumption or animal feed. The idea is to keep such imports out of the food chain. India already relies on corn for 46% of its ethanol blending, surpassing sugarcane and broken rice.

However, sugar mills are wary. They’ve seen their share in ethanol production decline sharply and fear imported GM corn could further reduce their role in the fuel blending programme. There are also political sensitivities: Bihar, heading for elections soon, is one of India’s top corn-producing states. Any move to open corn imports could trigger a backlash from farmers.


2. Ethanol: Fuel or Foe?

The US dominates global ethanol exports, with India ranking as its third-largest buyer after Canada and the UK. Yet, India permits ethanol imports only for industrial or medicinal use, and strictly not for fuel blending.

The US wants that to change.

But allowing fuel-grade ethanol imports runs counter to India’s own objectives — namely, cutting down on fuel imports and promoting the use of domestic crops like sugarcane and maize for ethanol production. With a projected demand of over 11 billion litres of ethanol in 2025 — mostly for fuel — India is likely to continue shielding this sector from foreign competition.


3. Soybeans: The GM Wall Stands Firm

Soybean is another flashpoint. Nearly all soy cultivated in the US and Brazil is GM — a variety banned from import in India in its raw form. While India allows GM soybean oil, it bars the import of whole beans and the protein-rich de-oiled cake (DOC) left after oil extraction.

A NITI Aayog paper had once proposed that India could import GM soybeans to extract oil for domestic use and export the DOC. However, the suggestion was quickly withdrawn.

India’s soybean farmers, mainly in BJP-ruled states like Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, and Rajasthan, are already struggling with low prices. Permitting GM soybean imports now could be politically explosive.


4. Dairy: Cultural and Economic No-Go Zone

The US is not a dominant player in global dairy exports, but it’s pushing for access to India's vast market. India, however, remains protective of its dairy sector — and not just economically.

Apart from high import duties (up to 60% on milk powder), India requires that all imported dairy must come from animals not fed with products derived from slaughtered bovines — a restriction the US claims is driven by “religious and cultural grounds”.

Dairy, deeply linked to India’s rural economy and religious sentiment, is a firm red line. While it’s unlikely India will relax these norms, the sector could become a bargaining chip — used to negotiate more favorable terms on other issues like ethanol or corn.


The Bigger Picture

At the heart of this standoff is a familiar trade dilemma: balancing economic cooperation with domestic political realities. The Indian government, facing upcoming elections in several states and an agriculture-heavy voter base, is in no mood to compromise on farm-related issues.

Meanwhile, Washington is unlikely to drop its demands easily, especially with the Trump administration pushing to reduce trade deficits and expand US exports.

The road to a comprehensive trade deal may still be open — but with corn, ethanol, soybeans, and dairy on the table, the two sides clearly have some hard bargaining ahead.

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